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Core Viewpoint - The ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is significantly impacting international oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since late July, driven by geopolitical tensions and military actions from both sides [1][7][11]. Military Actions - From September 20 to 26, the Russian military conducted a large-scale strike using precision weapons and attack drones, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complexes, transportation and energy infrastructure, ammunition depots, military airfields, and temporary locations of Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries [3][4]. - Ukrainian forces have intensified drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including a strike on the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, resulting in a fire at the facility [3][11]. U.S. Involvement - U.S. President Trump has been pressuring Russian oil buyers, which has contributed to rising oil prices. He expressed a willingness to consider Ukraine's request for more long-range missiles, although no changes to existing restrictions were confirmed [4][9]. - The U.S. stance on Ukraine's military support appears to be softening, but uncertainties remain regarding future policy changes [5]. European Security Concerns - The risk of spillover from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing, with reports of Russian drones or military aircraft violating the airspace of Poland, Romania, and Estonia, raising concerns about European security and NATO's eastern flank [5][6]. - The European Union is discussing the establishment of a "drone wall" to enhance security, with plans for a technical roadmap and funding to support this initiative [5]. Oil Market Dynamics - The geopolitical pressures have led to the largest weekly increase in international oil prices in over three months, with Brent crude reaching $70 per barrel, marking a 5.17% increase for the week [8][11]. - Speculative positions in the oil market are shifting, with traders moving from net short to net long positions in Brent crude for the first time since early August, indicating a change in market sentiment [11].