10年数据透视：国庆节后A股上涨概率70%

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market around the National Day holiday, highlighting historical trends and sector performance, suggesting a generally positive outlook for the market post-holiday [1][5]. Market Performance Statistics - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have shown a 70% probability of rising on the first trading day after the National Day holiday, with 60% and 70% probabilities of rising over the next five trading days respectively [1]. - The historical data indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index recorded five years of gains and five years of losses in October, while the Shenzhen Component Index had seven years of gains and three years of losses [2][3]. Sector Performance Analysis - The sectors with the highest probability of gains post-National Day include Computer, Communication, and Electronics, with Banking, Non-bank Financials, and Automotive also showing strong performance in the weeks following the holiday [4]. - The average returns for key sectors during the week before and after the holiday indicate that sectors like Computer and Communication have consistently performed well, with average returns of 2.7% and 1.8% respectively in the first trading day after the holiday [4]. Future Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages have a positive outlook for the A-share market post-holiday, recommending investors to maintain positions and consider sector allocations in Electronics, Communication, and Machinery [5][6]. - The current market environment shows active trading and a recovery in investor participation, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend in A-shares [6].