特朗普关税下，大众、博世、奥迪、保时捷等德国汽车大厂深陷裁员潮

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Trump administration to impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks has further exacerbated the already fragile state of the German automotive industry, leading to significant job cuts and restructuring efforts among major manufacturers and suppliers [2][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs and Economic Conditions - The German automotive sector is struggling with declining sales, profit warnings, and the impact of U.S. tariffs, prompting a summit hosted by Chancellor Merz to address these challenges [2][5]. - Economic experts indicate that Germany has not yet emerged from its economic crisis, with a full recovery potentially not occurring until after 2026 due to tariff impacts and necessary structural adjustments [2][5][14]. Group 2: Job Cuts and Corporate Restructuring - Bosch announced plans to cut 13,000 jobs over the next five years, signaling a broader trend of layoffs across the German automotive industry, including major players like Daimler, Volkswagen, and Ford [2][10]. - The automotive industry has already seen approximately 55,000 jobs eliminated over the past two years, with projections indicating that tens of thousands more jobs could be lost by 2030 [9][10]. Group 3: Shift in Industry Structure - A report from Goldman Sachs highlights a fundamental shift in the DAX index's industry structure, with the automotive and parts sector's weight dropping from about 21% in 2015 to less than 10% [5]. - The transition to electric vehicles is slower than anticipated, leading to increased pressure on German manufacturers to downsize and restructure [7][12]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - A joint economic forecast from five major German economic research institutions predicts only a 0.2% growth for Germany in 2025, with manufacturing recovery remaining weak due to high energy and labor costs [14][15]. - The reliance on exports, which has historically been around 70% for Germany, makes the economy particularly vulnerable to external shocks like U.S. tariffs [16].