黄金，又创历史新高！

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices have surpassed $3,800 per ounce for the first time, reaching a historical high, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On the 29th, international spot gold prices peaked at $3,819.81 per ounce, marking a significant milestone [1]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, reported an increase in holdings from 996.85 tons to 1,005.72 tons, a rise of 0.89% [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 45%, influenced by central bank demand and the Fed's renewed interest rate cuts [6]. Group 2: Economic and Political Influences - The softening of the dollar is attributed to ongoing discussions between U.S. Congress leaders and President Trump regarding government funding [3]. - A potential government shutdown could delay key employment data, complicating the Fed's monetary policy outlook [4]. - Current market expectations indicate a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance in December [4]. Group 3: Broader Precious Metals Market - Silver prices reached their highest level since 2011 on the 29th, reflecting broader trends in precious metals [6]. - Analysts from Barclays suggest that gold prices appear reasonable compared to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating gold's role as a value hedge [6]. - Predictions from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank suggest that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue [6].