突破3820美元！金价，再创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged to a new historical high, exceeding $3820 per ounce, significantly impacting demand, particularly in the Chinese market [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 29, 2023, the London gold price reached $3827.37 per ounce, marking a 1.82% increase for the day and over 45% increase year-to-date, setting a new historical record [4]. - The London silver price also rose to $46.72 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 61%, reaching its highest level in nearly 14 years [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that under a baseline scenario, international gold prices could rise to $4000 per ounce by 2026, with a potential peak of $4500 per ounce under tail risk scenarios [4]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics in China - The rising gold prices have led to a noticeable decline in consumer demand in China, with August showing a continued weak trend in upstream physical gold demand [6]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold outflow of 85 tons in August, a decrease of 9 tons from the previous month, marking the lowest level for August since 2010 [6]. - The World Gold Council noted that the decline in demand is attributed to increased risk appetite among investors, shifting towards the stock market, and a slowdown in sales of gold bars and coins [6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Despite the high gold prices, there has been a significant increase in investment demand for gold, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [9]. - The Chinese gold market is experiencing a structural shift, with high-value, well-designed gold jewelry gaining popularity, while overall consumption volume is declining [9]. - The domestic gold ETF market has seen a reduction in assets, with the E Fund Gold ETF's circulation dropping from 3.7 billion shares in mid-May to below 3 billion shares [7].