人民币中间价调升63个基点

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate against the USD are primarily driven by a temporary rebound in the USD index, with a general trend of appreciation observed throughout the year, despite short-term volatility [3][4][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. - In the third week of September, the RMB showed slight depreciation, closing at 7.1219 against the USD on September 24, down 86 points from the previous day [4]. - The RMB's depreciation is attributed to a significant rise in the USD index, which reached a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [4]. Influencing Factors - The current "strong dollar, weak RMB" scenario is a result of multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for USD due to upcoming holidays and corporate needs [5][6]. - The RMB's appreciation earlier in the year was supported by favorable internal and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the RMB's long-term stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [7][8]. Economic Context - The depreciation of the USD by 10% over the first nine months of the year reflects a significant decline in its credibility, influenced by various economic pressures [7]. - China's economic recovery and improved prospects for technological innovation have contributed to a reassessment of Chinese assets, further supporting the RMB [8]. - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the need to maintain the RMB's stability in the foreign exchange market, aiming to prevent excessive fluctuations [8].