起点锂电·2025-09-30 08:20Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in the lithium battery market, transitioning from concerns about insufficient demand to worries about supply constraints, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is now a key driver of lithium battery demand [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium battery sector has seen a strong rebound in stock prices for major companies like CATL and Ganfeng Lithium, indicating a market sentiment shift [2]. - Energy storage has transitioned from a secondary role to a primary focus, with unexpected growth driving demand [3]. - Major manufacturers are experiencing order backlogs, with some companies unable to meet demand and having to forgo lower-margin orders [3]. Group 2: Production and Capacity Utilization - In 2025, the top 10 domestic energy storage cell manufacturers maintained a capacity utilization rate above 80%, with many exceeding 90% since the second quarter [5]. - CATL's capacity utilization reached approximately 89.86%, with a backlog of over 48 GWh in energy storage orders extending into Q1 2026 [6]. - Companies like EVE Energy and Aoxin Energy reported full production capacity, with significant year-on-year increases in shipment volumes [6][8]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Imbalance - The "chip shortage" phenomenon is attributed to a mismatch between supply and demand, with energy storage demand significantly outpacing supply capabilities [12][13]. - The domestic energy storage market has seen a 150% year-on-year increase in new tenders, with a total of over 210 GWh from January to August [15]. - Internationally, Chinese energy storage companies have experienced explosive growth in overseas orders, exceeding 180 GWh, a year-on-year increase of over 200% [16]. Group 4: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes a potential continuation of the supply-demand gap until Q1 2026, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of 30%-50% for global energy storage over the next 3-5 years [20]. - Prices for energy storage batteries are expected to rise due to increased costs of raw materials like lithium carbonate, although competitive pressures may limit price increases in the system integration market [21]. - The introduction of larger capacity cells (500Ah+) may eventually replace some of the demand for 314Ah cells, potentially stabilizing prices [21].