见证历史！金价，新纪录！商家：“不敢轻易增加库存！”｜“双节”消费看变化

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold surpassing $3,895 per ounce and COMEX gold breaking $3,900 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the gold market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a surge in prices, with retail prices for gold jewelry reaching 1,130 RMB per gram for brands like Chow Sang Sang and 1,129 RMB for Chow Tai Fook [5][7]. - The price of gold jewelry in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market has increased from approximately 796 RMB per gram in early September to 888 RMB per gram [7][10]. - The international gold price has seen a significant increase of nearly 11.8% in September and approximately 16.8% in the third quarter, with a year-to-date increase of around 47% [10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding gold purchases, despite the rising prices, indicating a cautious approach to buying [8][10]. - There is a notable increase in tourists purchasing gold in Shenzhen, suggesting that the market is attracting external buyers due to the price surge [8]. Group 3: Business Strategies - Jewelry retailers are adopting a strategy of "buying as much as they sell" to mitigate risks associated with high inventory costs during price fluctuations [8]. - The profit margins for gold jewelry are reported to be between 10% to 20% for weight-based pricing, while "one-price" gold jewelry can have margins of 30% to 40% [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with UBS forecasting a price of $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and increased central bank purchases [11]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 per ounce for gold by mid-2026, with potential for prices to exceed $4,500 per ounce under certain conditions [11].