深夜！美元跳水！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the U.S. ADP employment data for September has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October [1][6][7]. Employment Data Summary - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 50,000 jobs, and a prior increase of 54,000 jobs [6][7]. - The annual benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the U.S. added 911,000 fewer non-farm jobs than previously estimated over the past year, suggesting a more fragile labor market than previously thought [6][7]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The decline in employment data has led to a heightened probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, now estimated at 99% [7][8]. - Current economic conditions show a combination of a slowing labor market and rising inflation, presenting a challenge for the Federal Reserve in balancing economic downturn risks and inflation pressures [7][8]. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown, which could halt the release of key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [7][9]. - The shutdown has led to concerns about the economic impact, although it is believed to have a limited effect on GDP growth [11]. Market Reactions - Following the ADP report, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply, and gold prices surged, reflecting market anxiety over the employment data and government shutdown [1][10]. - The major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all experiencing declines [3][4].