社科院倪鹏飞：警惕城市规模“越大越好”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the need for quality improvement in existing urban spaces and the real estate sector, as outlined in the recent central government policies [1][2][6]. Urbanization and City Development - China's urbanization rate has surpassed 67%, with over 70% of urban development being stock space, indicating a shift from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing urban quality [1]. - The recent Central Urban Work Conference and the subsequent "Opinions" document highlight the importance of integrated urban development, enhancing the competitiveness of mega cities, and activating existing urban resources [1][6]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The housing issue for urban residents has largely been resolved, transitioning from "having a house" to "having a good house," with a significant demand for quality housing that is not being met by current supply [2][14]. - The real estate market is expected to stabilize and adjust in supply and structure, with a focus on high-quality housing and community development [2][24]. Urban Group and City Coordination - The evolution of urban systems is moving towards coordinated development among metropolitan areas, city clusters, and small to medium-sized cities, with a focus on functional complementarity and differentiated development [2][10]. - The "Opinions" document emphasizes the need for strategic layouts and institutional innovations to enhance urban group and metropolitan area development, providing opportunities for market expectations and resource allocation [6][24]. Housing Quality and Community Development - The demand for "good houses" is substantial, but supply remains insufficient, necessitating efforts in both stock updates and new construction [2][15]. - Enhancing the quality of housing must also include improving surrounding environments, public services, and infrastructure to create better living conditions [16][22]. Challenges and Solutions in Urbanization - The article warns against blindly following the experiences of other countries regarding urban concentration, advocating for a balanced approach to urban size and functionality [10][11]. - Addressing the imbalance between large cities and smaller towns requires optimizing public resource allocation and promoting two-way flow of resources and industries between urban centers and surrounding areas [11][12]. Future Directions in Real Estate - The central government's policies are expected to accelerate market adjustments, promote new real estate development models, and enhance the quality of housing supply [24]. - The focus will be on reducing burdens for homebuyers, improving public services, and converting existing stock into affordable housing to meet diverse needs [22][23].