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创年内新高后意外回落,港股“日历效应”将如何演绎?
第一财经·2025-10-03 13:15

Market Overview - After a significant rise, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a notable pullback on October 3, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.54% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.9% [5][6] - The automotive sector was a major drag on the market, with BYD shares falling 3.95% and other new energy vehicle makers like Li Auto and Xpeng also declining over 2% [5][6] - Despite the overall market decline, hydrogen energy stocks showed resilience, with Shanghai Electric surging 13%, reaching a new closing high not seen in over a decade [5][6] Performance Analysis - In September, the Hong Kong stock market performed well, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 13.9%, significantly outperforming other major global indices [7][8] - Historical data indicates a strong "calendar effect" during the National Day holiday, with the Hang Seng Index showing an 86.7% probability of rising during this period since 2010 [8][10] Future Outlook - Short-term market sentiment appears cautious, with expectations of a pullback following the holiday surge, as the "calendar effect" dissipates within a week [10][11] - However, medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic, with analysts suggesting that the current bull market for Hong Kong stocks, which began in Q4 of last year, is still in its mid-stage [10][11] - Key sectors such as industrial products, materials, energy, and healthcare are identified as having high price-to-book ratios, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10][11]