黄金白银猛涨！后续怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in international gold and silver prices during the National Day holiday, with gold reaching a new historical high and silver also hitting a multi-year peak, driven by factors such as U.S. interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3][4]. Price Movements - On October 2, spot silver briefly surpassed $48 per ounce, marking a new high since 2011, while spot gold soared to $3896 per ounce, nearing the $3900 mark [1][3]. - Following these peaks, both gold and silver experienced a sharp decline, with silver dropping below $46 [1]. Yearly Performance - Gold prices have increased by 48% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979, while silver has outperformed gold with a 65% increase this year [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The current gold-to-silver ratio is approximately 81:1, indicating that silver is relatively undervalued compared to gold, which has attracted bullish sentiment towards silver [1][12]. - Silver's market dynamics are characterized by decreasing inventories and rising speculative demand, with LBMA silver inventories down by about 10,000 tons compared to peak levels [9][11]. Speculative Demand - Speculative long positions in COMEX silver have risen from 30,000 contracts in May to approximately 38,000 contracts by September 23, reflecting increased market optimism [10]. - Limited silver inventories may struggle to meet the growing speculative demand, suggesting potential short-term supply shortages if the bullish trend continues [11]. Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has expressed a positive outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4300 by the end of 2026, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs [14][16]. - The World Gold Council reported a rebound in global gold ETF demand to 587.8 tons this year, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against economic uncertainties [16].