3Q25全球医药晴雨表：A股走势稳健、港股大涨、美股回暖，后市机会在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The global pharmaceutical market in Q3 2025 is experiencing significant volatility, with some sectors performing exceptionally well while others struggle. The focus is on identifying promising investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the areas of drug research and development outsourcing (CXO) and biotechnology funds in the US [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Directions to Watch - The pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong is primarily driven by companies providing research and production services to drug manufacturers, known as CXO. These companies are benefiting from a resurgence in demand for new drug development, leading to strong order volumes and stable profitability [3][4]. 2. Market Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the A-share biotechnology index rose by 14%, matching the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index. Notably, the pharmaceutical research outsourcing sector surged by 48%, driven by robust order volumes and solid earnings [5][6]. - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector outperformed the broader market, with healthcare stocks rising by 41%, led by biotechnology and life sciences services, which saw increases of 54% and 51%, respectively [6][8]. - In contrast, US pharmaceutical stocks lagged, with the S&P 500 healthcare index only increasing by 2%, attributed to a decline in post-pandemic earnings and ongoing policy uncertainties [6][7]. 3. Long-term Market Trends - Over the past year, the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector has seen a remarkable increase of over 100%, while A-shares have also experienced significant gains, particularly in the pharmaceutical research outsourcing segment, which rose by 111% [8][9]. - The A-share pharmaceutical market is showing a clear trend of divergence, with strong performers like CXO and innovative drugs thriving, while other sectors face challenges, including a projected revenue decline of 2% for 2024 [10][11]. 4. Investment Opportunities and Risks - The two resilient sectors in the A-share market are pharmaceutical research outsourcing and innovative drugs, both of which are experiencing improved revenue and profit margins due to increased demand from global pharmaceutical companies [12]. - Conversely, sectors such as vaccines, offline pharmacies, blood products, and medical devices are facing significant challenges, including intense competition and regulatory pressures [13][14]. 5. US Market Dynamics - The key driver for the US pharmaceutical market is the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which historically lead to positive performance in the biotechnology sector. Funds like IBB and XBI have already begun to outperform the broader market following these developments [17][18]. - Two leading companies in the US market, UnitedHealth and Novo Nordisk, are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the obesity treatment market [19][20]. 6. Conclusion - The current landscape of the global pharmaceutical market is characterized by a need for selective investment strategies, focusing on high-certainty opportunities in specific sectors such as CXO and biotechnology funds. External factors like Federal Reserve policies and US pharmaceutical regulations will significantly influence market dynamics [20].