牛津经济学家：科创将长期支撑中国增长

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the Asian economy amidst global uncertainty is attributed to supportive government policies and the deepening of regional cooperation, which can mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. protectionist policies [1][5][7]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Outlook - Many Asian economies have shown strong performance this year, partly due to the "pre-order" effect caused by U.S. tariff policies, which has supported exports [1][5]. - The growth momentum for several Asian economies is expected to remain optimistic in the coming quarters, driven by supportive government measures and the positive impact of regional cooperation [1][5][7]. - Despite potential slight slowdowns in growth due to diminishing "pre-order" effects, proactive government measures are anticipated to cushion the impact [5][7]. Group 2: Role of Technology and Innovation - Technological innovation is crucial for enhancing productivity in China, with a focus on upgrading the manufacturing sector, which constitutes about 25% of the GDP [3][4]. - The Chinese government is expected to continue investing in advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, which will significantly contribute to long-term economic growth [4][6]. Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Trade Agreements - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is seen as a significant driver for regional trade and economic cooperation, potentially yielding an additional 2% GDP gain for member economies if trade commitments are upheld [7]. - The shift towards regionalization in trade agreements is expected to strengthen the resilience of Asian economies against global trade fluctuations [7]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is viewed positively for Asian markets, as it narrows the interest rate differential and encourages capital inflows [8]. - The anticipated depreciation of the U.S. dollar may further enhance investor sentiment in Asian markets [8]. Group 5: Long-term Growth Drivers and Challenges - Asian economies face challenges due to their reliance on export-driven growth models amidst changing trade policies, prompting a potential shift towards regional trade strategies and domestic demand [9]. - Countries like China and South Korea are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements, providing a solid foundation for long-term growth despite a challenging global trade environment [9].