凌晨！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for further cuts while others express caution [2][5][10]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - More than half of the 19 officials at the September meeting expect at least two more rate cuts this year, while a minority anticipates only one cut or no cuts at all through 2025 [2][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29 is estimated at 94.6% according to CME FedWatch [6]. Employment Market Concerns - The minutes highlight concerns among officials about rising risks in the U.S. labor market, suggesting that prolonged high rates could lead to unnecessary weakness, particularly in the housing sector [8][9]. - Some officials argue that recent indicators do not show significant deterioration in the labor market [9]. Inflation Risks - Officials are worried about persistently high inflation, which has exceeded the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with concerns that businesses and consumers may adapt to higher price growth [9]. - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial for future policy decisions [9]. Data Availability Issues - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions at the next meeting [10]. - The absence of official data forces the Fed to rely on private sector information and feedback from businesses regarding pricing and hiring [10].