降息50个基点！刚刚，直线大跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 25 basis point reduction, indicating potential for further rate cuts in the future [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Cut - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Monetary Policy Committee announced a reduction of the official cash rate from 3% to 2.5% [3]. - A survey of 25 economists revealed that 10 expected a 50 basis point cut while 15 anticipated a 25 basis point cut [3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell sharply against the US dollar, with a peak decline of 1.20% to 0.5737, compared to a pre-announcement rate of 0.5797 [4]. - New Zealand bond yields dropped across the board, with the 2-year government bond yield falling by 7 basis points to 2.64% [4]. - The NZD has been the worst-performing G10 currency against the USD over the past 12 months, with a cumulative decline of 5.7% [4]. Rationale for Rate Cut - The Reserve Bank cited economic dynamics and risk balance as reasons for the rate cut, discussing both 25 and 50 basis point options [5]. - Support for a 25 basis point cut was based on existing recovery signs in consumption and employment, while the 50 basis point cut was favored due to concerns over idle capacity and the need for stronger support for consumption and investment [5]. - The decision to cut by 50 basis points was made to ensure medium-term inflation stability around the 2% target [5]. Economic Outlook - The Monetary Policy Committee expects inflation to approach the target midpoint by mid-2025, with overall inflation projected to reach 3.0% by Q3 2025 [6]. - The committee noted that global inflation is expected to decline, particularly in Asia, while the impact of tariffs on New Zealand's import and export prices remains limited [7]. - The current economic activity in New Zealand is relatively weak compared to other economies, contributing to a depreciation of the NZD [7].