节后开门红，稳了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for A-shares to rise after the National Day holiday, supported by historical trends and recent global market movements, while highlighting key events that may influence market dynamics. Global Market Performance - During the National Day holiday, global stock indices mostly rose, with MSCI global index up by 0.8%, MSCI developed markets up by 0.7%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 2% [6] - Taiwan's weighted index and Korea's composite index each rose by 3.6%, while the US indices saw slight increases: Nasdaq up by 0.5%, Dow Jones up by 0.8%, and S&P 500 up by 0.4% [6] Commodity Market Trends - Most global commodities saw price increases, except for crude oil, which fell by 1.1% for WTI and 1% for Brent due to OPEC+ supply news [8] - Precious metals continued to rise, with COMEX gold up by 2.7% and silver up by 3.9% during the holiday [8] Key Events Impacting Markets - The US government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn supports gold prices [12][13] - Japan's political developments, particularly the potential election of the first female Prime Minister, may lead to increased inflationary pressures and affect market liquidity positively [16] AI and Semiconductor Sector - OpenAI's recent partnerships with major semiconductor companies like Samsung and AMD are expected to significantly boost their performance, driving up related stocks and the overall semiconductor sector [19][20] - OpenAI's collaborations could lead to a substantial increase in computing power, estimated at a cost of $1 trillion, indicating its pivotal role in the future of the AI industry [23] Domestic Consumption Trends - The National Day holiday saw a surge in outbound tourism, with daily outbound travelers expected to exceed 2 million [27] - The domestic consumption market is also heating up, with a nearly 40% increase in spending by inbound tourists during the holiday [30] A-share Market Outlook - Historical data shows a 70% probability of A-shares rising after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a 0.48% increase on the first trading day of October [36][37] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for the A-share market in Q4, expecting a "slow bull" trend amid wide fluctuations [38] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment in Q4 include technology and cyclical industries, particularly those benefiting from advancements in solid-state battery technology and AI demand [44]