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Core Viewpoint - The recent fire at Novelis' plant in Oswego, New York, which is a major supplier of aluminum to the U.S. automotive industry, is expected to have significant negative impacts on automakers, particularly Ford, which may face an estimated $800 million hit to its EBITDA for the fiscal year 2025 due to production delays and increased costs [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Automotive Sector - The fire at Novelis has led to a sharp decline in U.S. automotive stocks, with Ford dropping 6.14% and General Motors falling 1.6% on October 9 [2]. - Novelis' plant provided approximately 40% of the aluminum sheet used in the U.S. automotive industry, making it a critical supplier for companies like Ford [3][4]. - The incident is expected to cause significant delays in the production of certain Ford vehicle models, with a projected 20% reduction in F-Series pickup production, equating to about 46,000 units [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Alternatives - Novelis is currently assessing the damage and exploring alternative production solutions to mitigate the impact on its customers [4]. - Other automakers, including Toyota and Stellantis, are also seeking alternative aluminum suppliers to alleviate the supply chain disruptions caused by the fire [6]. Group 3: Tariff Implications - The automotive industry is facing additional challenges due to the U.S. government's 50% import tariff on aluminum, which complicates the sourcing of materials from Novelis' overseas facilities [7]. - The tariffs, aimed at bolstering domestic steel and aluminum industries, are expected to lead to higher costs for U.S. manufacturers and consumers, potentially harming the broader manufacturing sector [8].