美国前财长鲁宾：关税收入于赤字杯水车薪，将伤害经济增长

Core Insights - Robert Rubin, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, expressed concerns about global market risks, tariff policies, inflation outlook, and the impact of artificial intelligence at the Greenwich Economic Forum [2] Tariff Policies - Rubin criticized the current direction of tariff policies, stating that open trade has historically benefited the U.S. economy, and that tariffs represent a "one-time cost increase" rather than a sustained inflationary measure [4] - He emphasized that tariffs raise producer costs, weaken corporate competitiveness, and ultimately pass costs onto consumers, arguing that viewing tariffs as a means of fiscal revenue is a serious misjudgment [4] - Rubin noted that tariff revenue is negligible in the context of overall deficits and ultimately harms consumers and economic growth [4] Artificial Intelligence - Rubin expressed cautious optimism regarding AI, suggesting that it could significantly enhance productivity and improve fiscal and growth rates [4] - However, he warned about the substantial employment displacement effects that AI could cause, as it transitions from routine tasks to complex cognitive functions [4] Monetary Policy - Rubin opposed the idea proposed by some Federal Reserve officials to use looser monetary policy to buffer AI-related unemployment, arguing that overheating the economy could lead to inflation, a weaker dollar, and rising interest rates, which would have negative repercussions [5] - He stressed that the Federal Reserve should prioritize price stability in its dual mandate [5] U.S. Economic Foundation - Despite his criticisms of current policies, Rubin maintained confidence in the U.S. economic foundation, citing a flexible labor market, unparalleled capital markets, top universities, and a strong culture of innovation [5] - He warned, however, that actions such as attacking universities, cutting research budgets, and tightening immigration policies are undermining long-term competitiveness [5] Gold Prices - Regarding the recent rise in gold prices, Rubin remained calm, viewing gold as a psychological hedge rather than a tool with intrinsic value or a reliable indicator of macroeconomic trends [5]