高市早苗面临“安倍经济学的魔咒”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic policies of Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, who is expected to adopt a fiscal approach similar to Abenomics, emphasizing the need for active fiscal measures to address rising prices and inflation risks [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy Stance - Kishi Sanae identifies herself as a successor to Abenomics, advocating for active fiscal policies and monetary easing, while expressing caution regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2][6]. - She has proposed a "responsible active fiscal" approach, suggesting that issuing deficit bonds may be acceptable if necessary, which distinguishes her from other candidates [5][6]. - Kishi's fiscal target is based on "net debt balance," which is calculated by deducting financial assets from the total debt of the national and local governments, with a current ratio of 136% relative to GDP as of 2023 [5][6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - The Japanese government's debt-to-GDP ratio is reported to be as high as 240%, indicating significant room for increased fiscal spending under Kishi's proposed framework [6]. - Kishi has previously advocated for temporarily freezing the goal of achieving a primary balance surplus, prioritizing flexible fiscal spending in response to the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. - The article highlights concerns regarding the potential for rising prices if demand is stimulated without fiscal reform, as Japan faces a new inflationary environment [8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Perspective - Kishi is viewed as a monetary policy "dove," emphasizing that both fiscal and monetary responsibilities lie with the government, and she has criticized the idea of raising interest rates at this time [7][8]. - She has previously stated that raising interest rates would be detrimental to personal consumption and corporate investment, expressing concerns about a return to long-term deflation [7]. - The rising interest rates in Japan, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.67%, are expected to increase the financial burden on households, particularly in terms of housing loans [8].