零营收！估值 90 亿美金独角兽 - Prediction Markets 炸裂硅谷

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the rapid growth and potential of Prediction Markets, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, highlighting their ability to provide real-time insights into public sentiment and event probabilities [2][10][29] - Altimeter Capital, a leading tech investment fund, has recognized the disruptive potential of Prediction Markets, which are gaining traction in Silicon Valley and beyond, with significant valuations for platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi [2][16][21] - The article outlines the characteristics of successful disruptive companies, noting that Prediction Markets exhibit user growth, a vast total addressable market (TAM), and alignment with current social and regulatory trends [6][7][12] Group 2 - Prediction Markets are defined as platforms where users can bet on the outcomes of various events, with prices reflecting the market consensus on probabilities, thus providing a more accurate gauge than traditional polls [8][9] - The rise of Prediction Markets is attributed to several factors, including the decline of mainstream media trust, the desire for tools that reveal truth, and the increasing participation of retail investors in the market [25][22] - The article compares Prediction Markets to traditional sports betting, highlighting their broader scope, regulatory advantages, and innovative pricing mechanisms that enhance user engagement [26][29] Group 3 - The article discusses the differences between Polymarket and Kalshi, noting their distinct approaches to market structure and regulatory compliance, with Polymarket being more decentralized and Kalshi focusing on compliance and partnerships with established platforms like Robinhood [21][24] - It highlights the significant growth in trading volumes for Prediction Markets, with Kalshi experiencing an 80% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance [16][20] - The introduction of new features, such as the Parlay function by Kalshi, is seen as a strategic move to compete with established sports betting platforms, further blurring the lines between different types of betting and trading [27][28]