“真正的投资逻辑是非共识”丨和高资本、昆仲资本荐书荐影

Core Insights - The success or failure of investments primarily hinges on the accurate judgment of profitability, which is rooted in the depth of understanding [1] - Engaging with historical perspectives and diverse knowledge through reading is essential for enhancing cognitive abilities and identifying investment value [1] Group 1: Recommended Readings - "The Possible Futures of the Next 10,000 Days" by Kevin Kelly emphasizes that future changes are not just about technological innovations but also involve transformations in social structures, interpersonal relationships, and personal growth [4] - The film "The Big Short" illustrates how independent judgment against prevailing market consensus can lead to significant financial gains, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis [6] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Successful investment decisions that yield excess returns often stem from independent judgments that contradict market consensus [7] - Non-consensus views must be based on solid research and factual foundations; mere contrarianism does not guarantee profitability [7] - The psychological pressure associated with non-consensus investments can be immense, as evidenced by the experiences of characters in "The Big Short" who faced significant losses before their insights were validated [7]