国际金价为何再创历史新高

Group 1 - The international gold price recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a peak at $4014.60 per ounce, marking a 50% increase this year, making gold one of the best-performing major assets globally [4][5] - The rise in gold prices reflects increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, with analysts suggesting that investors should allocate about 15% of their assets to gold [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong demand from central banks and private sector diversification [5] Group 2 - Multiple factors have driven the surge in gold prices, including the US government shutdown, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [7] - The weakening of the US dollar and increased fiscal uncertainty have enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings [7] - Central banks have resumed large-scale gold purchases, with a net increase of 15 tons in August, and gold ETF holdings have risen by 360 million ounces, reaching the highest level since September 2022 [8] Group 3 - Future gold price trends may continue to rise if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates further, the dollar remains weak, and geopolitical tensions persist, although some analysts warn of potential short-term corrections [11] - Several investment banks predict that gold prices may fluctuate between $3800 and $4100 per ounce for the remainder of the year, with some cautioning that gold may be slightly overbought [11] - Long-term forecasts remain bullish, with UBS projecting gold could reach $4200 per ounce and Citigroup suggesting it may challenge the $5000 mark if the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026 [11]