美联储主席最新发声！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in response to potential risks in the labor market and economic conditions, as indicated by various Fed officials [5][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the U.S. financial system, highlighting their close ties to local economies and commitment to understanding customer needs [4]. - Powell did not address the current economic situation or monetary policy in his recent remarks, focusing instead on the role of community banks [4]. - New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts this year to mitigate risks of a sharp slowdown in the labor market [6]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Insights - Williams noted a gradual cooling in the labor market over the past year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decline in job vacancies, but he does not foresee an imminent recession [6][7]. - He estimated that tariffs have raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, but the overall inflationary pressure appears to be stabilizing [7]. - The Fed's recent meeting minutes indicated a consensus among officials for further rate cuts due to weaker-than-expected employment data and persistent inflation above the 2% target [10]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Investors anticipate a 94.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming October FOMC meeting, with minimal chances of maintaining current rates [9]. - The minutes from the September meeting revealed concerns about economic growth slowing and labor market weaknesses, reinforcing the likelihood of additional rate cuts [10].