聚焦全球能源 | 中国需求是OPEC+增产的关键

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ may reconsider its production increase plans due to weak crude oil imports from China, which could lead to a surplus in global oil supply and lower WTI crude prices below $60 per barrel in Q4 [3]. Group 1: China's Impact on Oil Imports - China's crude oil imports from September 1 to 21 averaged 10.9 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1% and a month-on-month decline of 15% [4]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, following a series of increases from April to September, which may result in a surplus of up to 600,000 barrels per day in Q4 [6]. - If oil prices drop to $55-$60 per barrel, U.S. shale oil production may decline, helping to rebalance the market [6]. Group 3: Inventory Trends - U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to continue rising, with a potential increase of 600,000 barrels per day due to oversupply [6]. - The fair value of WTI crude could drop to $40 per barrel in extreme scenarios, such as a significant economic slowdown, if U.S. comparable inventories rise by 10% to 847 million barrels [6][8].