突发！“黑天鹅”

Core Viewpoint - The sudden breakup of the ruling coalition in Japan, with the Komeito party withdrawing from the alliance led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), poses significant uncertainty for the political landscape and the potential ascension of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister [2][5]. Political Developments - The Komeito party's representative, Tetsuo Saito, stated that the LDP failed to provide adequate responses regarding political funding issues [3]. - If the Komeito party's withdrawal is confirmed, it would end a political alliance that has lasted since 1999, just days before the Prime Minister nomination vote scheduled for October 15 [5]. - Takaichi, who won the LDP leadership election on October 4, is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics" and advocates for loose monetary policy, fiscal spending, and structural reforms [5]. Market Reactions - Following the news, the Nikkei index futures dropped over 1200 points, a decline exceeding 2% [6]. - The initial reaction in the foreign exchange market saw the yen rise to 152.36 before retreating, stabilizing around 152.8 later [6]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts indicate that investors are becoming cautious about the risks of a short-term political vacuum and delays in policy execution [8]. - The previous expectations of economic boosts from Takaichi's policies may lead to a reversal of the "buy stocks, sell yen" strategy that emerged after her election victory [8]. - If the opposition parties present a unified candidate instead of Takaichi, the gains in the USD/JPY exchange rate driven by her election could be fully reversed [8]. Future Outlook - The uncertainty introduced by the Komeito's exit may pressure the Japanese stock market, with the Nikkei index potentially retreating to around 40,000 points [9]. - Even if the LDP forms alliances with other parties, achieving a majority in both houses remains challenging, significantly reducing the likelihood of Takaichi's economic policies being implemented [9]. - The active trading strategy surrounding Takaichi's election is expected to unwind as market participants reassess the political landscape [9].