刚刚！美联储，降息大消息！

Group 1 - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has suddenly increased, with a 98.3% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91.7% probability for a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [1][5] - The U.S. Treasury market has seen significant inflows, with the 5-year Treasury yield dropping by 10 basis points and the 10-year yield falling by over 11 basis points, closing at 4.034% [3][5] - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut on October 29 [6][7] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for further rate cuts but emphasized the need for caution, noting a potential slowdown in the labor market and persistent inflation above the 2% target [10][11] - Waller indicated that adjustments to policy would be made based on changing data, advocating for a gradual approach to rate cuts to avoid significant errors in economic judgment [11][12] - San Francisco Fed President Daly has shifted focus towards the labor market due to lower-than-expected inflation increases, anticipating further rate cuts [12]