神秘交易员，成功押中诺贝尔和平奖归属

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sudden surge in betting on Maria Corina Machado as the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, raising concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets [1][6]. Betting Surge - Just hours before the announcement, betting on Machado's victory increased dramatically, with her odds rising from approximately 3.7% to 73.5% shortly after midnight [1][2]. - A new account on Polymarket, identified as "6741," initiated significant bets on Machado, resulting in over $50,000 in profits due to the low trading volume at that time [2][5]. Market Dynamics - Other traders followed the lead of the "6741" account, particularly after the betting activity gained attention on social media [5]. - The total betting amount on Machado's victory reached $2.2 million, compared to $13.9 million for Donald Trump's potential win [7]. Insider Trading Concerns - The Norwegian Nobel Institute is investigating the possibility of insider information being leaked, as significant profits were made through betting on Machado [6][8]. - Polymarket, which allows users to bet on various events, has been noted for its ability to predict outcomes accurately, raising questions about the integrity of such markets [7][8]. Regulatory Context - Polymarket operates as an offshore market not subject to U.S. regulations against insider trading, which has led to concerns about the prevalence of such activities [10]. - The platform has plans to re-enter the U.S. market after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange, indicating potential growth in the sports betting sector [10].