【库存指数】2025年9月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为54.5%

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for September 2025 indicates a slight increase in the inventory warning index, suggesting a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity despite a seasonal demand boost during the "golden September" period [2][4]. Inventory Warning Index - The inventory warning index for September 2025 is reported at 54.5%, which is a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points but a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points [2]. - The index remains above the threshold of 50%, indicating that the overall market demand is still relatively stable, although the industry's health is showing signs of decline [2][4]. Market Demand and Sales Performance - In September, various regions implemented changes to vehicle trade-in subsidy policies, which may suppress short-term demand [4]. - Despite these challenges, the back-to-school season and wedding-related purchases, along with promotional activities by dealers, have improved order conversion rates [4]. - Approximately 54.8% of dealers reported that new car sales did not meet their expectations, while 45.2% achieved or exceeded their targets [4]. Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing multiple pressures, including a lack of customer traffic, ongoing price inversions, and declining profitability [4]. - The most common challenge reported is insufficient customer flow, with a decrease in natural foot traffic and low online lead conversion rates [4]. - Price inversions persist, partly due to unsold older models, which exacerbate cash flow issues for dealers [4]. Regional Index Overview - The national index stands at 54.5%, with regional variations: North at 55.2%, East at 52.7%, West at 49.3%, and South at 61.9% [6]. - The index for luxury and imported brands, joint ventures, and domestic brands has shown a month-on-month decline [7]. Future Market Expectations - The automotive market in October is expected to follow a "high opening and steady trend" due to seasonal patterns and ongoing subsidy policies [8]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are anticipated to drive customer traffic and sales, supported by promotional activities from dealers [8]. - The China Automobile Circulation Association advises dealers to realistically assess market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence [8].