Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing a dichotomy during the National Day holiday in 2025, with some companies operating at full capacity while others are forced to halt production due to high copper prices and weak demand from downstream sectors [1][4][26]. Group 1: Production and Operations - Among 61 domestic copper rod enterprises, 19 chose to operate during the National Day holiday, including 16 recycled copper rod companies and 3 refined copper rod companies, with a combined capacity of 2.795 million tons [2][4]. - A copper rod enterprise in Jiangxi reported that they prepared over 1,000 tons of recycled copper raw materials to ensure continuous production during the holiday, indicating strong order demand [2][8]. - In contrast, refined copper rod enterprises averaged 4.05 days off during the holiday in 2025, an increase from 3.95 days in 2023, reflecting a slowdown in orders and production [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The copper price surged due to supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, impacting the entire copper sector and leading to a strong performance in the A-share market [4][35]. - Despite high copper prices, downstream orders have not returned to peak levels, with some enterprises adopting a cautious approach to production due to regional policy uncertainties [5][32]. - The dichotomy in the industry is evident, with recycled copper rod enterprises needing to prepare 600 to 750 tons of raw materials to maintain operations, while refined copper rod enterprises face reduced demand and longer holiday breaks [13][26]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - High copper prices have led to increased financial pressure on refined copper rod enterprises, with inventory levels rising significantly and payment cycles extending [27][32]. - A refined copper rod enterprise reported that their inventory had doubled to over 2,000 tons, leading to substantial financial costs during the holiday [26][27]. - The decision to conduct maintenance during the holiday was calculated to minimize losses, with companies estimating that holiday maintenance could save them significant financial resources compared to maintenance during peak production periods [30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - After the holiday, copper industry enterprises resumed production, with LME copper prices reaching a 16-month high, indicating a potential recovery in demand [34][35]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market by 2026, driven by tightening supply and structural demand growth [36][39]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan for the non-ferrous metals industry aims for a significant increase in recycled metal production, which may influence future investment and operational strategies in the copper sector [38][39].
铜加工企业库存堆积如山 铜价还能疯多久？
经济观察报·2025-10-11 09:52