关税引发波动，多家券商解读，股市大概率不会复刻4月冲击

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's renewed tariff threats on the stock and bond markets, suggesting that the current market reaction may not mirror the significant downturn experienced in April. Analysts from various securities firms express a cautious but optimistic outlook for equity assets, indicating that investors should wait for market stabilization before making adjustments to their positions [1][3][5]. Stock Market Analysis - Analysts believe that the stock market is unlikely to replicate the sharp declines seen in April due to differences in the current economic environment and market conditions. The sentiment shock from Trump's recent tariff threats is expected to be less severe, as China is better positioned to respond proactively [3][5]. - The market has experienced only "sentiment shocks" since April, and both equity and commodity markets are anticipated to reach new highs in the future [3]. - The focus remains on the upcoming negotiations between China and the U.S., particularly the outcomes of the APEC meeting in late October, which could influence market dynamics [5]. Bond Market Outlook - There is a potential for a short-term recovery in the bond market, with some analysts suggesting that the recent events may create trading opportunities. Investors are advised to consider adjusting their bond portfolios accordingly [2][6]. - Historical data indicates that previous tariff announcements led to significant declines in bond yields, suggesting that a similar pattern could emerge if market participants react with heightened risk aversion [7]. U.S.-China Trade Relations - The article highlights the escalation of U.S.-China tensions, particularly following the U.S. announcement of new tariffs and export controls targeting China. This includes a 100% tariff on certain goods and restrictions on key software exports [8][10]. - In response, China has implemented countermeasures, including stricter export controls on rare earth materials and increased fees for U.S.-owned vessels docking at Chinese ports [11][12]. - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized by a series of retaliatory measures, with both sides taking steps that could further complicate the economic landscape [9][13]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.9% and the Nasdaq falling 3.56%, marking the largest single-day drops since April [17][18]. - The volatility in the markets is reflected in the VIX index, which surged over 31%, indicating heightened investor anxiety regarding short-term risks [21].