债市或呈“牛平”态势，关注震荡修复与结构机遇

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "bull flattening" trend in the fourth quarter, characterized by declining yields and a flattening yield curve, with a focus on certain returns and structural opportunities [2][6]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Bond Market Adjustment - In the third quarter, the bond market experienced a range-bound adjustment, particularly in September, where the 30-year government bond yield rose by approximately 10 basis points, leading to a bear steepening of the yield curve [4]. - The bond market's performance in September was primarily influenced by two factors: overall market risk appetite suppressing bond performance and marginal changes in policy expectations, with the central bank maintaining liquidity but investors losing confidence in long-term bonds due to anticipated policy shifts [4][6]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations also contributed to market disturbances, raising concerns about potential redemptions from bond funds [4][6]. Group 2: Outlook for the Fourth Quarter - The bond market is expected to improve in the fourth quarter compared to the third, although uncertainties remain. The central bank may restart government bond purchases and utilize tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support the market [7][8]. - The overall monetary policy environment remains supportive, but there are signs of "deposit migration" that could affect banks' bond allocation capabilities. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance's early issuance of local government debt limits may exert supply pressure on government bonds [7][8]. - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.85%, with a tendency for long-term rates to decline while short-term rates may be influenced by policy rate guidance [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Structural Opportunities - In the current volatile bond market, investment strategies should focus on coupon income while being cautious about duration, paying close attention to policy changes and structural opportunities [10]. - The probability of interest rate cuts remains, and investors are advised to monitor macroeconomic policies and their impacts on the bond market [10][11]. - The bond market's risk of credit spread adjustments persists, and investors should focus on medium to short-duration credit bonds to secure more certain returns [10][11]. - The bond market's odds and cost-effectiveness have improved following significant declines since July, with potential for a rebound as risks associated with redemptions diminish [11].