日本首相提名选举可能出现的3种前景

Core Viewpoint - The political landscape in Japan has become chaotic following the Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to potential changes in leadership and the possibility of a new prime minister being elected from the opposition parties [2][4]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - The Komeito party announced on October 10 that it would nominate its own leader, Saito Tetsuo, for the prime ministerial election and is not expected to vote for LDP's candidate or any opposition candidates [4]. - If the opposition parties unite to nominate a candidate, they could potentially surpass the votes for LDP's candidate, Saito, leading to a change in government [2][4]. Group 2: Election Scenarios - Scenario 1: LDP could govern alone, resulting in "Prime Minister Saito". The LDP currently holds 196 seats in the House of Representatives, and with Komeito's 24 seats, they could reach a total of 220 votes, which is still below the combined opposition total of 210 seats [5][6][8]. - Scenario 2: LDP could form a coalition with some opposition parties, still resulting in "Prime Minister Saito". If the opposition fails to unite, some votes may flow to Saito, allowing him to win with the highest number of votes even without a majority [9][10]. - Scenario 3: A coalition of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Japan Innovation Party, and National Democratic Party could lead to "Prime Minister Tamaki". This scenario hinges on the ability of these parties to unite and support Tamaki as a single candidate [11][12]. Group 3: Challenges for Opposition - The opposition parties face challenges in uniting, as the CDP's leader, Noda, has expressed a willingness to consider Tamaki as a candidate, but there are significant policy disagreements that could hinder cooperation [11][12]. - The internal dynamics within the CDP, particularly the presence of factions that may not support Tamaki, could also impact the outcome of the election [12]. Group 4: Upcoming Developments - The temporary Diet session to elect the new prime minister is scheduled for the week of the 20th, with various parties testing each other's positions and engaging in negotiations [12].