势银研究报告 |《上海电气洮南生物质甲醇项目解读》

Core Insights - The article discusses the "Tiaonan Biomass Methanol Project" by Shanghai Electric, highlighting its economic viability and the growing market for green methanol in China [2][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Tiaonan project is expected to generate an annual revenue of approximately 360 million RMB from its main and by-products [3]. - The project utilizes biomass gasification to produce methanol, with a current estimated production cost of 4,900 RMB per ton [3]. - The green methanol price under the Tiaonan project is set at 840 EUR per ton, equivalent to about 7,031 RMB [3]. Group 2: Market and Capacity - As of August 2025, there are 220 green methanol projects in China, with 38 projects either in production or under construction, totaling an estimated capacity of 4.8 million tons per year [5]. - By 2028, the conservative estimate for China's green methanol production capacity is projected to exceed 5 million tons per year [5]. Group 3: Technical and Economic Analysis - The operational costs are critical in determining the overall cost of green methanol, with biomass raw material costs exceeding 50% and electricity costs accounting for 33% of the total [3]. - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of different technical routes for methanol production and their associated costs [8]. Group 4: Environmental Impact - The project emphasizes the importance of green methanol certification and evaluates the lifecycle carbon emissions associated with the Tiaonan project [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article outlines the competitive landscape for green methanol in China and provides forecasts for the market's future growth [9].