SPIR：深度分析中国锂电实施出口管制产生八大影响 或将重塑全球锂电格局

Core Viewpoint - China's export control on lithium batteries and related materials is a strategic move aimed at safeguarding national security and maintaining core competitive advantages, signaling significant changes in the global new energy landscape [3][7]. Summary by Sections Export Control Policy Overview - The export control policy is based on the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs' announcement No. 58 of 2025, covering the entire industry chain from key materials to advanced manufacturing equipment [5][6]. - The policy includes high-energy density lithium-ion batteries (≥ 300 Wh/kg), battery production equipment, and specific cathode and anode materials [6]. Impact on Global Supply Chain - The policy is expected to accelerate the restructuring of the global supply chain, leading to increased costs and reduced efficiency [7]. - Shortages and price hikes are anticipated, particularly for key materials like artificial graphite anodes and high-performance lithium batteries, affecting overseas manufacturers reliant on Chinese supplies [8]. - Establishing alternative sources will be challenging and costly, requiring significant investment and time [8]. Effects on Domestic Lithium Battery Industry - The impact on domestic leading companies varies; short-term negative effects are expected for certain materials and equipment, while long-term benefits may arise for battery cell exports [9]. - Chinese lithium battery cell manufacturers may see price increases and profit growth due to limited supply for overseas competitors [9]. Consequences for International Battery Manufacturers - Major battery manufacturers in Japan and South Korea, such as LGES and Panasonic, heavily depend on Chinese materials and will face significant supply chain risks and cost pressures [10][11]. - European and American automakers are also at risk of supply instability and rising costs, potentially accelerating their shift to Chinese battery suppliers [10][11]. Long-term Implications for the Lithium Battery Industry - The policy may lead to a short-term decline in orders for certain domestic material and equipment companies, but it encourages a shift towards higher value-added segments [17]. - Companies with overseas production facilities will gain a competitive edge, prompting more firms to expand internationally [18]. - The policy aims to transition from exporting low-value raw materials to higher-value end products, aligning with China's manufacturing upgrade strategy [18]. Cost and Price Impact on Lithium Batteries - The export control is expected to significantly increase global lithium battery production costs, with core material prices projected to surge by 30%-50% due to supply shortages [19][20]. - The long-term price trend for lithium batteries is anticipated to reverse, with prices expected to rise by 20%-30% in the coming years [23]. Solid-State Battery Technology Control - The export control measures will enhance the management of solid-state battery technologies, maintaining China's competitive edge in this field [24]. - The focus on high-energy density batteries will likely lead to increased investment in solid-state battery development [25]. Global Technological Innovation and Industry Changes - The policy is expected to stimulate global investments in local battery supply chains, pushing for regional diversification [25][26]. - The restrictions may slow the global diffusion of lithium battery technologies, altering international collaboration dynamics [26]. Conclusion - China's export control policy on lithium batteries is a pivotal strategic move that will reshape the global lithium battery supply chain, leading to increased costs and supply challenges in the short term while fostering long-term technological advancements and competitive positioning for Chinese firms [27].