25km/h限速，围住3.8亿电驴大军

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new national standard for electric bicycles in China aims to enhance safety by enforcing a maximum speed limit of 25 km/h, yet the market continues to see widespread illegal modifications that allow for higher speeds, raising significant safety concerns [3][10][11]. Group 1: New National Standard Implementation - The new national standard, effective from September 1, 2025, mandates that electric bicycles must not exceed a speed of 25 km/h, with automatic power cut-off for violations [3][10]. - Despite the new regulations, many retailers continue to offer services to bypass the speed limit, allowing customers to modify their bicycles to reach speeds of 60 km/h or more [5][6]. - The demand for higher speeds among consumers, particularly in delivery services, has led to a culture of illegal modifications, which poses serious safety risks [6][10]. Group 2: Safety Concerns and Modification Techniques - Various methods for illegally modifying electric bicycles include removing speed limit chips and upgrading battery voltage, which can lead to severe safety hazards such as collisions and battery fires [6][8]. - The use of decoders to alter system parameters without triggering speed alerts has become a common practice, further complicating enforcement of the new standards [7][8]. - The new national standard includes specific anti-tampering requirements for battery packs, controllers, and speed limiters to mitigate these risks [8][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The transition to the new standard has resulted in increased manufacturing costs due to stricter safety and material requirements, leading to higher retail prices for compliant products [13][15]. - The "trade-in" policy for old electric bicycles has seen significant growth, with a reported 113.5% month-on-month increase in sales through this program in the first half of the year [14][15]. - However, recent announcements from several cities to pause the "trade-in" policy could negatively impact sales during the transition period between old and new standards [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the electric bicycle market in China is expected to continue growing, with estimates suggesting a potential increase in the number of electric bicycles to between 460 million and 510 million [15]. - The new standard is anticipated to accelerate technological upgrades and industry consolidation, pushing the market towards higher quality products [15].