猪价跌超22%至年内低位

Core Viewpoint - The holiday consumption effect on pig prices is weakening, with prices continuing to decline despite the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2][5][6] Price Trends - The average national pig price was 12.90 yuan/kg in the first week of October, down 2.8% from the previous week and 29.5% year-on-year, marking a decline of over 22% compared to the beginning of the year [2][5] - As of October 13, the average price for external three-yuan pigs dropped to 10.81 yuan/kg, with significant regional price differences [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs remains abundant due to previous production capacity releases and ongoing policy impacts, leading to a generally high supply [3][6] - Demand is expected to improve in November as cooler weather stimulates pork consumption and southern regions begin their curing activities, potentially providing some support for prices [3][6] Profitability and Industry Impact - The decline in pig prices has severely impacted breeding profits, with self-breeding and piglet fattening operations showing losses of 206.91 yuan and 409.19 yuan per head, respectively [9][10] - Different market pressures are felt across various breeding entities, with smallholders facing the most significant challenges due to higher costs, while larger enterprises have better risk management capabilities [10][11] Production Capacity Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture has emphasized the need for strict production capacity controls, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads [10][11] - Some companies, like Muyuan Foods, have begun to adjust their production capacity by reducing the number of breeding sows and managing slaughter weights [11][12] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there may be a seasonal increase in demand during the upcoming festive periods, the overall supply remains high, limiting the potential for significant price rebounds [7][11] - The speed of production capacity reduction will be crucial in determining future price trends, with expectations of continued high supply levels into 2026 if current trends persist [11][12]