专访经济学家蒂莫西·泰勒：美联储降息或将“小步慢跑”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% is seen as a signal of a shift in monetary policy, with expectations of a gradual and cautious approach to future rate cuts [3][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut and Economic Context - The recent rate cut is the first since late last year and is intended to alleviate economic downward pressure while avoiding significant market volatility [3][6]. - Inflation has decreased from a peak of 8% in August 2022 to approximately 3%, indicating a significant easing of inflationary pressures [6]. - Despite the reduction in inflation, the unemployment rate reached a near four-year high in August, with job growth slowing to an average of 116,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, down from 250,000 earlier in the year [6][8]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Timothy Taylor predicts that the Federal Reserve may implement gradual rate cuts over the next 6 to 12 months, likely in increments of 25 basis points [7][10]. - Market expectations for rate cuts are high, with a 98.3% probability of a cut in October and a 91.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis points cut by December [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The relationship between rate cuts and stock market performance is complex; while lower rates typically benefit equities, factors such as corporate earnings expectations and policy uncertainty can offset these effects [9][13]. - Investors are advised to reassess their dollar asset allocations within a comprehensive "return-risk" framework, considering factors like dollar interest rates, exchange rate trends, and domestic interest rate environments [12][14]. - The average annualized yield of dollar-denominated financial products has decreased from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September, leading to a sense of loss among investors despite still positive returns [13].