【金融观察】又见“TACO”交易 十月市场风向

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in global markets, emphasizing the importance of identifying trends amidst noise and the potential for investment opportunities in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic data resilience [2][22]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration, global markets experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.71% and the tech sector facing severe losses, particularly in semiconductor stocks [3][4]. - The fear of a renewed trade war has led to a "risk-off" sentiment among investors, with a notable spike in the VIX index, indicating increased market volatility [3][4]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged, with New York futures reaching $4060 per ounce, reflecting a 50% increase over the past year, driven by factors such as fiscal deficits, currency devaluation, and geopolitical tensions [5][10]. - The article highlights the divergence in the roles of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, with gold serving as a "credit hedge" while Treasuries are viewed as a "policy bet" [10]. Investment Trends - The article notes a significant increase in new investor accounts in China, with 2.937 million new accounts opened in September 2025, indicating growing interest in domestic markets [11]. - China's foreign financial assets have surpassed $11 trillion, reflecting a robust inflow of foreign investment, particularly in equities [12]. Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the economy, although it remains below the expansion threshold [12][16]. - The article discusses the potential for policy-driven growth in key sectors, particularly in technology and resources, as the government focuses on high-quality development [13][18]. Geopolitical and Economic Risks - The ongoing trade tensions and potential for further tariffs pose risks to global supply chains, particularly in technology sectors like semiconductors and AI [17]. - The article suggests that the interplay of global liquidity and domestic policy signals will shape investment opportunities, with a focus on resource and technology chains [18][19].