玉渊谭天：美国或失1600万吨大豆订单

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, with a forecasted loss of 14 to 16 million tons if China does not resume purchases by mid-November [3][4] - From January to September 2023, the number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at Chinese ports decreased by 56%, dropping from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [3] - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports are projected to reach $24.58 billion, accounting for 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports, with over half of this amount, $12.64 billion, coming from China [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is actively seeking new buyers in Africa and Asia to mitigate the impact of reduced Chinese demand, as indicated by U.S. Treasury Secretary's communication regarding falling soybean prices [4] - Since May 2023, China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans, leading to a significant drop in export volumes, with only 5.9 million tons exported to China from January to July [3]