50年一遇世纪大逼空 白银空头满世界搜罗银锭忙交割

Core Viewpoint - The London silver market is experiencing a liquidity crisis, leading to a significant surge in silver prices, with analysts noting that the market is effectively "stalled" due to insufficient physical silver to meet delivery demands for billions of dollars in contracts [1][22]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The London silver spot price reached $51.91 per ounce, with an intraday high of $51.97 per ounce as of October 13 [3]. - The premium of London silver spot prices over New York COMEX silver futures peaked at $3, a historical high [3][12]. - The overnight annualized leasing rate for silver in London exceeded 100%, indicating extreme scarcity [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - The liquidity crisis in the London silver market is attributed to three main factors: anticipated U.S. tariffs on silver imports, significant inflows into silver ETFs, particularly from India, and insufficient silver production to meet industrial demand [10][11]. - Over the past six years, the freely circulating silver inventory in London has decreased from 850 million ounces to less than 200 million ounces [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Hedge funds and multi-strategy investment firms have increased their bets on rising silver prices, pushing the market to new highs [12]. - The lack of resistance from short-sellers has allowed silver prices to break through key psychological levels without significant pushback [8][9]. - The current situation mirrors historical events from the 1980s when similar market dynamics were observed [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that large quantities of silver from New York and Hong Kong will soon flow into the London market, potentially alleviating the current shortage [20]. - However, logistical challenges, including customs delays due to government shutdowns, may prolong the liquidity crisis [20][21]. - Investment banks are beginning to take positions in the market, with forecasts suggesting a target price of $65 per ounce for silver by 2026 [22].