补贴政策退坡预期刺激车市升温 9月乘用车销量创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese passenger car market experienced significant growth in September 2023, with retail sales reaching a new high, driven by new product launches and favorable policies [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In September 2023, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. Cumulatively, from January to September, retail sales totaled 17.005 million units, up 9.2% year-on-year [2]. - September's sales surpassed the previous record of 2.19 million units set in September 2017 by 50,000 units [2]. - The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic passenger car market reached 57.8% in September, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The growth in September was attributed to two main factors: the launch of over 70 new car models, which is the highest concentration in history, and the expiration of the tax exemption for NEVs, creating urgency among consumers [2][4]. - The price war among car manufacturers has moderated, with only 23 models reducing prices in September compared to 36 in the same month last year. However, hidden discounts and incentives have increased [3]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Insights - NEV retail sales reached 1.296 million units in September, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.5%. Cumulatively, from January to September, NEV retail sales totaled 8.866 million units, up 24.4% [4]. - The wholesale growth rate for pure electric vehicles reached 32.4% in September, while plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles saw growth rates of 8.4% and 8.7%, respectively [4]. - The market share of domestic brand NEVs was 70.1% in September, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the market share of mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.2% [5]. Group 4: Export Performance - In September, passenger car exports reached 528,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. Cumulatively, from January to September, exports totaled 3.999 million units, up 12.5% [6]. - NEV exports were particularly strong, with 211,000 units exported in September, representing a year-on-year growth of 96.5% and accounting for 40.1% of total passenger car exports [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain stable growth in the fourth quarter, supported by policy guidance and high growth foundations. The adjustment of the NEV purchase tax exemption policy is anticipated to stimulate consumer purchases before the end of the year [7]. - The China Passenger Car Association has raised its annual sales forecast, projecting 24.35 million passenger cars to be sold in 2025, a 6% increase [7].