监管“盯上”船舶“冒黑烟”

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the draft "Emission Smoke Density Limits and Measurement Methods for Ships," which aims to enhance the regulation of visible pollutants from existing ships, marking a shift from source control to lifecycle management [1][3]. Regulatory Framework - The draft expands its scope from diesel engines to all ships, changing the measurement method from engine testing to direct exhaust measurement, and sets a compliance line at Ringelmann blackness level 2, significantly improving regulatory precision [3]. - The new regulations address the issue of black smoke emissions from existing ships due to improper maintenance and poor engine-propeller matching, filling a long-standing regulatory gap [3][5]. Emission Statistics - In 2023, ship emissions accounted for 27.4% of hydrocarbons (HC), 35.7% of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and 28.6% of particulate matter (PM) from non-road mobile sources, highlighting the urgent need to control ship black smoke emissions for better air quality in port cities [4]. Challenges with Current Standards - The existing standards for ship diesel engine emissions are outdated, lacking effective regulatory measures for black smoke from existing ships, necessitating a more scientific and enforceable new standard [5]. - The new standard is expected to reduce particulate matter emissions by approximately 13,800 tons [5]. Market Dynamics - Although the draft does not outright ban traditional oil fuels, the established regulatory framework will drive the shipping fuel market towards cleaner and more diverse options [7]. - The market share of traditional heavy fuel oil is expected to gradually decline due to tightening regulations and the rise of alternative fuels, with low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) becoming increasingly mainstream [8]. Future Fuel Trends - In the short term, the shipping industry will likely rely on commercially viable liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol, while long-term goals will necessitate a shift to zero-carbon fuels like green methanol and ammonia [8][10]. - Traditional oil companies are encouraged to transition towards renewable energy and develop electric liquid fuels, leveraging their existing advantages in the chemical sector [10][11]. Opportunities for New Energy Companies - The draft creates opportunities for new energy companies to enter the shipping fuel market by focusing on technological breakthroughs and participating in infrastructure development [11][12].