黄金一直涨？历史上三次都以暴跌收场

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surge in gold prices driven by fears of financial collapse, with global investors, both professional and retail, rushing to purchase gold, pushing its price to historical highs, potentially entering a bubble phase [2][4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year, reaching a record of $4,000 per ounce, with expectations for 2023 to be the best year since 1979 [4][20]. - The recent gold buying frenzy in Japan has seen retail investors actively purchasing gold bars and coins, leading to a significant increase in demand [6][29]. - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been major buyers of gold, diversifying their foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on the US dollar [6][7]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - A record $26 billion flowed into gold ETFs in the third quarter, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [7][20]. - The phenomenon of "gold-plated FOMO" (fear of missing out) has emerged, with investors rushing to buy gold to avoid missing price momentum, potentially leading to increased market volatility [7][20]. - Traditional methods of valuing gold, such as its relationship with real interest rates, have become less reliable, complicating investment decisions [21][30]. Group 3: Economic Context - The article highlights concerns over rising debt levels and inflation, with investors viewing gold as a hedge against these risks, particularly in the context of US economic policies [10][18]. - The ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations have further fueled gold's appeal as a safe asset [20][30]. - The article notes that gold's supply is relatively inelastic, with production expected to remain stable over the next three years, which could support higher prices [23][24]. Group 4: Historical Comparisons - Historical patterns indicate that rapid increases in gold prices can lead to significant corrections, as seen in the late 1970s and 2011 [14][17]. - The current market sentiment reflects a shift towards gold as a protective asset amid fears of economic instability, reminiscent of past financial crises [8][10].