港股打新神话归来？仅1家破发！涨幅猛但散户“一签难求”

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a rapid recovery since 2025, with IPOs leading global fundraising efforts in the first three quarters. The new IPO pricing mechanism implemented on August 4 has significantly improved the first-day performance of newly listed stocks, with only one out of 19 new listings experiencing a decline on their debut [1][5]. Group 1: IPO Market Performance - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to reclaim the top position globally by the end of 2025, driven by an unprecedented wave of IPO applications, with nearly 300 listings as of September 30, 2025 [4]. - In the first nine months of 2025, there were 67 new listings raising a total of HKD 182.9 billion, marking a 49% increase in the number of listings and a 229% increase in fundraising compared to the previous year [4]. - Despite the recovery, the probability of new stocks experiencing a decline on their first day remains notable, with a 30.23% decline rate observed in the first half of 2025 [4]. Group 2: Changes in Distribution Mechanism - The new IPO pricing mechanism allows issuers to set the public offering allocation between 10% and 60%, significantly reducing the allocation for retail investors, which previously could be as high as 50% [4][5]. - Following the implementation of the new rules, the first-day decline rate for new stocks has decreased, with only one out of 19 new stocks listed since August 4 experiencing a decline [5]. Group 3: Retail Investor Participation - Retail investors are facing increased difficulty in securing allocations due to the new distribution mechanism, which has led to a situation where demand far exceeds supply, resulting in a "monks and porridge" scenario [2][6]. - The record-breaking subscription rate of 11,465 times for the listing of Golden Leaf International Group on October 10 highlights the heightened interest among retail investors, despite the limited allocation of only 10% [7]. - The average allocation for retail investors has dropped to around 10%, leading to a significant decrease in the chances of winning allocations, with some stocks having a winning rate as low as 0.1% [7][8]. Group 4: Stock Performance Trends - Among the 19 new stocks listed after the new rules, 9 companies saw their first-day gains exceed 100%, indicating a strong performance trend for newly listed companies [10]. - The majority of the top-performing stocks this year are small-cap companies, with the highest gainers often being those with high subscription multiples [10]. - Retail investors tend to favor larger companies for their stability, although smaller companies have shown greater initial price increases [11].