由攻转守！年末基金优选顺周期品种

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced significant volatility after the National Day holiday, influenced by public funds realizing high-yield investments and a shift towards defensive strategies in the fourth quarter to secure annual performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Public fund managers anticipate a shift to defensive strategies in Q4, as high valuation states in certain sectors have become apparent, leading to profit-taking in high-performing segments [2][4]. - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 indicates that sectors with high gains in the first three quarters typically underperform in Q4, prompting institutional investors to lock in profits or reposition towards lower-risk assets [2][6]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers are accelerating portfolio adjustments in October, seeking balanced allocations, which may contribute to market corrections. The focus is on switching between high and low-performing sectors [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience a controlled adjustment, as traditional blue-chip stocks have not shown significant gains and remain below historical average valuations, suggesting that the broader market trend remains intact despite short-term fluctuations [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the fourth-quarter strategy shift, public funds are likely to favor cyclical sectors such as consumer goods, resources, and finance, while adopting a more cautious approach compared to the previous quarters [6][7]. - The performance of cyclical sectors, particularly in consumer and resource stocks, is anticipated to be strong, with new consumption trends like beauty and pet economies leading the charge [7][8]. - The dual-driven market structure of "technology" and "cyclical" is expected, with technology representing future growth and cyclical stocks benefiting from liquidity and policy improvements [8].