凌晨！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of a rate cut in October due to the deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for further rate cuts, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October according to CME FedWatch [1][7]. - Analysts believe Powell's statements have solidified the market's belief in a rate cut, with some suggesting that the October cut is almost certain due to ongoing labor market risks [6][7]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell noted that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since the last meeting, but risks to employment have increased, prompting the September rate cut [2][3]. - He emphasized the slow hiring pace and the potential for further declines in the unemployment rate, with job vacancies decreasing [2][3]. Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Status - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve's long-term plan for reducing its balance sheet (QT) may be nearing its end, with careful monitoring of liquidity indicators [4][5]. - The Fed's balance sheet has been reduced to $6.6 trillion since mid-2022, and Powell acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity in the banking system [5][6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, U.S. stock markets showed a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.44% after initially dipping [7]. - Major tech stocks experienced declines, while some banks like Wells Fargo and Citigroup saw significant gains due to better-than-expected earnings [7].