关税战的“胆小鬼博弈”，玩不下去了？

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the current tariff war is not merely the adjustment of tax rates, but a precise game surrounding the future reshaping of global industrial chains [25]. Group 1: Tariff War Dynamics - The recent escalation in the tariff war has seen Trump threaten a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and restrict software exports to China, prompting a series of countermeasures from China, including actions related to rare earths and shipping fees [2][5]. - Business leaders are adopting a more pragmatic approach, shifting from long-term investments to short-term flexibility in response to the uncertainty created by the tariff war [7][26]. - The current tariff war is characterized as a "chicken game," where both sides are aware that neither can afford to back down completely, leading to a stalemate [26]. Group 2: Trade Data and Market Adjustments - China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while the total trade value for the first three quarters of the year reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% increase [30][29]. - Despite a 16.9% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. during the first three quarters, exports to ASEAN and the EU have seen significant growth, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [35][37]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted by a notable increase in exports to Africa, which grew by 27.3% year-on-year, showcasing the potential for market diversification [35][48]. Group 3: Strategic Insights for Businesses - Companies are increasingly recognizing the need to diversify their markets and reduce reliance on a single market, leading to what is termed a "super resilience transformation" [37][48]. - The future of trade will likely see a continued focus on regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as companies seek to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape [48][49]. - The importance of understanding both adversaries and allies in the context of the tariff war is emphasized, as companies need to be well-informed to adapt their strategies effectively [39][40].