铜价逼近最高点，上涨还可能持续

Core Viewpoint - The price of copper is experiencing significant increases due to supply shortages and rising demand from sectors like data centers, with recent futures prices nearing historical highs [2][4][6]. Group 1: Copper Price Trends - As of October 13, the LME three-month copper futures reached $10,820.5 per ton, close to the historical peak of $11,104.5 per ton set in May 2024, driven by speculation on expanding data center demand [4]. - Following a landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8, copper futures prices surged by 8.5% from the previous day's close [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, is expected to see a production reduction of approximately 35% by 2026, significantly impacting copper supply [4]. - Citigroup has adjusted its global copper supply forecast, predicting a 0.1% increase in 2025 to 23.15 million tons and a 1.3% increase in 2026 to 23.46 million tons, down from previous estimates [4][6]. Group 3: Future Consumption and Market Activity - Long-term copper consumption is projected to grow, with a 2.9% increase expected by 2026, leading to a supply gap of 400,000 tons, which is 100,000 tons larger than earlier estimates [6]. - Speculative funds are increasingly moving into the copper market, with net long positions reaching approximately 56,000 contracts, the highest level in about six months [6]. Group 4: Mining Development and M&A Activity - The U.S. is planning to develop the Resolution copper mine, potentially the largest in the country, although local opposition persists [7]. - Mining companies are more inclined to pursue acquisitions rather than develop new mines due to the lengthy development timelines, with recent mergers indicating increased M&A activity in the sector [7].