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央行,最新发布!前三季度社融增量突破30万亿,M1攀升至7.2%,什么信号?
券商中国·2025-10-15 10:17

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a supportive monetary environment for economic recovery [1][3]. Financial Statistics - In the first three quarters, the total social financing increased by 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan [1]. - The increase in RMB loans was 14.75 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [1]. - As of the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%, up 1.5 percentage points [1]. Direct Financing Contribution - Government bonds and corporate bonds contributed over 40% of the new social financing, with net financing from government bonds at 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - Corporate bond financing also increased, with net financing reaching 1.57 trillion yuan, supported by favorable policies and low issuance rates [3]. - The share of RMB loans in the total social financing increment fell to 48%, indicating a shift towards more diversified financing channels [3]. Credit Growth and Structure - The growth rate of new RMB loans decreased to 6.6% by the end of September, but adjusted for local special bond replacements, the growth rate was approximately 7.7% [4]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 36.09 trillion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing reached 15.02 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% [5]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year [5]. M1 Growth and Deposit Trends - The M1 growth rate reached 7.2% by the end of September, significantly up from the low of 0.1% earlier in the year [6]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 reflects increased business activity and a recovery in personal consumption demand [6]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" indicates a reallocation of household assets in response to changing return rates across financial markets [7]. Economic Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive of the real economy, with fiscal policies actively contributing to investment [7]. - The foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target of around 5% appears solid, supported by recent industry policy measures [7].